After splitting a two-game set in Boston to begin their long road trip, the Braves now head to Washington D.C. to take on the Nationals in a four-game set. The Nationals came to Atlanta last week and took three of four there in what was a disappointing and somewhat problematic blow to the Braves; Atlanta will be looking to at least return the favor in order to get the ball rolling on the heels of what’s been an inconsistent season so far.
After taking three of four from the Braves, the Nationals did not find it easy sledding. They lost a series to the Guardians in Cleveland, and then returned home to get swept by the Mets, giving up 23 runs in three games in the process. It was a dramatic reversal in fortunes for a pitching staff that was a huge surprise to that point and stymied not just the Braves, but all sorts of opposition, and even held the Guardians to just 12 runs in three games.
Put it all together, and the Nationals are now 27-34, with the same distance between them and the Braves (eight games) as there is between the Braves and the Phillies. They are in a virtual tie with the Pirates for a bottom five position player unit, but even with the huge letdown with the Mets, still have a top five pitching staff. In a vaguely interesting note, they’ve played worse at home so far (10-15), which is probably not something that will stick for the whole season.
The Braves have won every season series against the Nationals dating back to the start of their current run (2018), and haven’t lost a series in D.C. since April 2018.
Thursday, June 6, 6:45 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Reynaldo López (10 GS, 57.1 IP, 24.3 K%, 8.8 BB%, 1.73 ERA, 2.71 FIP)
Right-hander Reynaldo López will get the start for the Braves in Thursday’s series opener for Atlanta. Lopez has performed well for Atlanta since moving back to the rotation on a full time basis for the first time since 2020. He recorded a season-high eight strikeouts and allowed one run over six innings in his last start against Oakland. Lopez continues to get by with a teeny-tiny HR/FB rate, which is driving his FIP and fWAR. That said, his 94 xFIP- is still quite handy to have in a rotation, and his xERA is also in line with that mark.
Originally signed by Washington out of the Dominican Republic, Lopez appeared in 11 games for the Nationals before being traded to the White Sox in the 2016-2017 offseason. This will be his second career start at Nationals Park since the trade; after this game, two of his seven starts there will have involved the Braves.
Mitchell Parker (9 GS, 50.0 IP, 21.3 K%, 5.9 BB%, 3.60 ERA, 3.43 FIP)
The Braves will try to solve right-hander Mitchell Parker in Thursday’s opener for a second straight week. Parker faced Atlanta at Truist Park on May 27 where he struck out six and allowed three runs over 6 1/3 innings. Parker held the Braves in check for most of that outing with the runs coming late, after the game was out of hand. He allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Guardians, and has allowed three earned runs in each of his past four starts, with two poor outings sandwiching two good ones in that span. He had allowed a homer in four straight starts before avoiding the longball against Cleveland.
Friday, June 7, 6:45 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Chris Sale (11 GS, 67.2 IP, 30.5 K%, 3.7 BB%, 3.06 ERA, 2.48 FIP)
Chris Sale was named Pitcher of the Month for May, but his start to June went horribly awry, as the Athletics battered him for a season-high eight runs in just four innings. For some added perspective, Sale allowed just two earned runs combined across five starts in May. Sale was the only member of the rotation to not face the Nationals in the previous series. He made one start against them last season where he allowed two earned runs over 4 1/3 innings with a 3/3 K/BB ratio — one of his worst starts of 2023.
Jake Irvin (12 GS, 69.0 IP, 21.8 K%, 4.4 BB%, 3.39 ERA, 3.18 FIP)
Righty Jake Irvin will match up against Sale in Friday’s game. Irvin was lights out against the Braves in the previous series at Truist Park, allowing just two hits while posting a season-high 10 strikeouts over six scoreless innings. He allowed two earned runs and struck out six in his last start against the Guardians. Dating back to April 24, Irvin is on a little bit of a weird roll where he alternates two mediocre or subpar starts with two good ones. That pattern probably won’t hold, but if it does, the Braves stand to benefit on Friday night.
Saturday, June 8, 4:05 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Charlie Morton (11 GS, 62.2 IP, 24.9 K%, 10.7 BB%, 3.88 ERA, 3.93 FIP)
Charlie Morton will look for better results against the Nationals when he takes the ball in Saturday’s game. Morton matched up against Parker on May 27 in Atlanta and had a wild game with an insane BABIP-against allowing 12 hits and eight runs over 5 2/3 innings. Morton was able to save the bullpen by pitching into the sixth, but there was such an early hole dug with him on the mound that the Braves weren’t able to dig out of it despite a late rally. Morton kinda bounced back-ish in his next start, allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings against the Athletics, albeit with five walks to six strikeouts. That start had a BABIP-against below .100, so things kind of evened out for Morton in the end.
Morton has weird career results against the Nationals in 17 starts: a 5.23 ERA, but a 4.44 FIP and 3.86 xFIP. In seven starts at Nationals Park, he has a 7.39 ERA, 5.33 FIP, but a 3.87 xFIP. That said, a lot of those starts were accrued before his renaissance; as a Brave his ERA and estimators are at 4.00 or below against the Nationals overall, and those numbers at Nationals Park are all below 3.00.
MacKenzie Gore (12 GS, 63.0 IP, 27.3 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.57 ERA, 3.21 FIP)
The Nationals showed a lot of good starting pitching in the previous series in Atlanta but none were anymore dominant than lefty MacKenzie Gore who allowed one earned run and struck out 10 over 5 1/3 innings. However, he couldn’t keep it going and had a nightmare of a time against the Mets, with a 2/4 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed in just 4 1⁄3 innings in what was easily his worst start of the year.
Sunday, June 9, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (12 GS, 73.2 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 2.93 ERA, 3.21 FIP)
Max Fried will take the ball for the Braves in Sunday’s series finale. Fried allowed two runs and set a new career-high with 13 strikeouts in seven innings in his last start in Boston. He faced the Nationals on May 28 in Atlanta and tossed eight scoreless innings to go along with six strikeouts. Since allowing 10 earned runs in his first five innings of the season, Fried has a 1.83 ERA and a 3.03 FIP over his last 10 starts combined. Despite that poor start, he’s quickly rising up the pitching leaderboards.
DJ Herz (Triple-A: 9 GS, 36 IP, 27.5 K%, 19.0 BB%, 3.75 ERA, 4.70 FIP; MLB: 1 GS, 4 IP, 14.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 9.00 ERA, 6.38 FIP)
DJ Herz made his major league debut for the Nationals in Tuesday’s game against the Mets and struggled, allowing seven hits and four runs in four innings with a 3/2 K/BB ratio and a longball yielded. Herz is ranked as Washington’s 17th best prospect per Baseball America. He made nine starts at Triple-A before his promotion and posted a 3.75 ERA and struck out 27.5 percent of the batters he faced. However, those numbers came with a massive 19 percent walk rate, 4.70 FIP, and 5.67 xFIP.
